Spring 2026 Forecast: Why the Rapid Shift to El Niño is Reshaping the United States and Canada Outlook
The real extent of the stratospheric warming event is usually revealed by the temperature anomaly, which shows just how much warmer the stratosphere has become. Below is the forecast for the stratosphere at the 10mb level (30km/18.5miles height). It shows a strong stratospheric warming wave, with temperatures peaking over 40 degrees C above normal.
But the overall pattern is clear, and the trend for lower than normal temperatures over southern Canada and the northern United States.

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